Prepared by Tara, senior analyst at BAD BEAT Investing
We did some big buying in Visa (NYSE:V) in March and April, and we went so far as to tell our members that this was an absolute gift under $150. When shares hit $200, we recommended pocketing some trading gains. Make no mistake, shares are attractive if they fall back under $200. We think there is more room to run here, but let the market hit the stock. Right now it has been biding time. Make no mistake, the stalling of the global economy due to COVID-19 shutdowns have caused obvious volume declines for Visa and related companies. It is simply a fact. We will closely be watching Q4 numbers when they are reported in a few weeks. The most recent earnings show us some key metrics were mixed, but these are the metrics you should be watching when Q4 is
We review Visa (V) (Buy-rated in our coverage) ahead of FY20 results on October 28, referencing last quarter’s results, recent volume data and management comments.
Since our initial Buy rating in June 2019, Visa shares have returned 25.3% (including dividends), slightly ahead of the S&P 500, behind Mastercard (MA) (Buy-rated) and PayPal (PYPL) (also Buy-rated), but far ahead of American Express (AXP) (Neutral-rated):
Stable Year-on-Year Volume Trends
The last set of Visa volume data was for August, which showed stable year-on-year trends in U.S. payments, with a 7% year-on-year growth (8% in July):
Debit card volume continues to lead the recovery, partly due to consumers using their debit cards in purchases that were previously made with cash withdrawn from ATMs. The year-on-year decline in Card Present decelerated slightly in late August, but volume was still down high-single-digits. Card Not Present (Excluding Travel) volume remained at 30% higher year-on-year.