White House Weekly: October 12

We begin on Friday, October 2nd, following his announcement late into Thursday night that he and the First Lady tested positive for COVID-19, President Trump leaves the White House for Walter Reed Military Medical Center “out of an abundance of caution.”



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As a result of Trump’s positive test, the Trump campaign postpones all future campaign events. Vice President Mike Pence tests negative for the virus while campaign manager Bill Stepien and former White House adviser Kellyanne Conway test positive. Senators Ron Johnson, Thom Tillis, and Mike Lee also tested positive.

It’s a very sobering moment for the presidency. Faced with a deadly virus with a month until the election created the type of chaos you only see from a so-called October surprise.

Saturday, October 3rd, mixed messages emerge from the White House after Trump’s physician Dr. Sean Conley paints a rosy characterization of

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Stocks climb, closing out biggest weekly gain in 3 months

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A man walks past an electronic stock board showing Japan’s Nikkei 225 index at a securities firm in the rain in Tokyo Friday, Oct. 9, 2020. Asian stock markets followed Wall Street higher on Friday on hopes Washington will provide more aid to the struggling U.S. economy.

AP

Wall Street closed out its best week in three months Friday as investors drew encouragement from ongoing negotiations on Capitol Hill aimed at delivering more aid to the ailing U.S. economy.

The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, its third straight gain. The benchmark index ended the week with a 3.8% gain, its strongest rally since early July.

Much of this week’s focus has been on Washington, where President Donald Trump sent markets on a sudden skid Tuesday after he halted negotiations on a support package for the economy until after the election. He appeared to change his mind a few hours

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Building a U.S. THC Brand, One State at a Time: Cannabis Weekly

(Bloomberg) — How many brands of soft drinks can you name off the top of your head?

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Nearly everyone can come up with Coke and Pepsi, but go further down the list and it quickly diverges, based on regional breakdowns and local loyalties. That’s what the nascent cannabis industry is dealing with, too. Cannabis firms that want to dominate the sector are facing a rule of numbers — there’s only room for a few big names in any category, and breaking into American households with name recognition is a monumental task.

In the CBD industry, products can at least sell across state lines, so becoming the “Oreo” or “Tylenol” of CBD is within reach for the most successful players. But for companies pitching products that contain THC, the psychoactive ingredient in marijuana, brand-building gets tricker. Because regulations vary by state, crucial brand-building elements like formatting and packaging can

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Weekly Commentary: Weird | Seeking Alpha

The President is diagnosed with COVID-19, with rapidly worsening symptoms prompting a Friday evening Marine One flight to Walter Reed Medical Center. By Monday, he is back to the White House apparently feeling spryer than when he was a man 20 years younger. Reversing course on Tuesday, the President abruptly calls off stimulus negotiations “until after the election.” Negotiations were back on Wednesday, with the administration pursuing piecemeal stimulus (airlines, individual stimulus checks). By midweek the President was referring to his COVID infection as “a blessing from God.”

Thursday President Trump was calling for a “skinny” stimulus package. Friday morning saw the White House suddenly “open to going with something bigger,” and by lunchtime Larry Kudlow was on Fox News saying, “The President has approved a revised package. He would like to do a deal.” Appearing with Rush Limbaugh later in the afternoon, it was “I would like to see

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Stocks climb, closing out biggest weekly gain in 3 months | National News

The S&P 500 rose 30.31 points to 3,477.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 161.39 points, or 0.6%, to 28,586.90. The gain nudged the Dow into positive territory for the year. The Nasdaq composite climbed 158.96 points, or 1.4%, to 11,579.94.

Small-company stocks added to their solid gains this week. The Russell 2000 index picked up 9 points, or 0.6%, to 1,637.55. The index jumped 6.4% this week.

Investors have been clamoring for more federal aid since the expiration of extra benefits for laid-off workers and other stimulus for the economy that Congress approved earlier this year. Economists say the outlook is grim without such support, and the chair of the Federal Reserve has said repeatedly it will likely be necessary.

Still, the prospects for a new deal on more aid have been shaky, especially this week.

Trump said that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was negotiating in bad faith when

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US weekly jobless claims remain high at 840,000

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell slightly last week to a still-high 840,000, evidence that job cuts remain elevated seven months into the pandemic recession.

The latest sign of a flagging recovery comes two days after President Donald Trump cut off talks over a new rescue aid package that economists say is urgently needed for millions of unemployed Americans and struggling businesses. A failure to enact another round of government aid would crimp household income and spending, and some economists say it would raise the risk of a double-dip recession.

Thursday’s report from the Labor Department said the number of people who are continuing to receive unemployment benefits dropped 1 million to 11 million. The decline suggests that many of the unemployed are being recalled to their old jobs. But it also reflects the fact that some have used up the 26 weeks of their

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S&P 500 Weekly Update: Dow Transports And Small Caps Lead This Leg Of The Rally

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.”Jesse Livermore

Anyone who follows the equity market realizes that they are faced with what I described last week as a foggy outlook in the near term. When that occurs, I try not to get swayed and then sidetracked into forgetting the long-term trends that are in place.

An investor has to be reactionary waiting for the market to give them clues, then reacting appropriately. I take my leads from price action, momentum, sentiment, and other indicators. All designed for me to decipher what the market is telling me. Never drifting too far from the one key that serves as the foundation of my current strategy. That is staying focused on the major trend that is in place, and that remains without question in favor

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Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Slow Improvement Has Continued

Purpose

I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to market.” In general, I go in order of long-leading indicators, then short-leading indicators, then coincident indicators.

A Note on Methodology

Data is presented in a “just the facts, ma’am” format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.

Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked.

A few items (e.g., Financial Conditions indexes, regional Fed indexes, stock prices, the yield curve) have their own metrics based on long-term studies of their behavior.

Where data is seasonally adjusted,

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US STOCKS-S&P 500 set for second straight weekly gain on stimulus hopes

By Devik Jain

Oct 9 (Reuters)Wall Street’s main indexes were set to rise on Friday, setting up the S&P 500 and the Dow for their second straight weekly gain on hopes of more fiscal aid and growing expectations of a Democratic victory in next month’s presidential election.

After stalling talks on a comprehensive aid package earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday called for a “skinny” relief bill that would include elements such as direct payments and a bailout to the struggling airline sector.

Shares of JetBlue Airways Corp JBLU.O, Delta Air Lines Inc DAL.N, American Airlines Group Inc AAL.O and United Airlines Holdings Inc UAL.O edged higher in premarket trading.

“The market is continuing to rise on hopes of some sort of a conclusion (on stimulus), not only to the airlines, but to the rest of the country,” said

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FX Weekly: The Winter Depression

Macro News

Global: Equities have been receiving some support in the past two weeks following their bear retracement in September, which has stabilized price volatility (VIX is trading slightly below 30) and therefore generate preference for risk-on assets. Even though it seems that participants rushed to buy the dips in markets as they are confident that the stock market will continue to trend higher in the last quarter of 2020, we are very cautious as there are a lot of uncertainties coming forward, starting with US elections, Brexit and the possibilities of a second lockdown that will dramatically reduce growth expectations. Leading indicators such as global trade is not showing any signs of improvements and the lack of stimulus (both monetary and fiscal in the US) will certainly limit the upside gains in the equity market. We saw that China credit impulse is one of the few liquidity indicators showing

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